Many attributes of Amateur Radio are no longer unique to Amateur Radio. With that loss of uniqueness has come a general malaise and belief that Amateur Radio is obsolete and irrelevant. We blame the Internet and cellular phones for making Amateur Radio obsolete – but the blame lies solely with us for clinging to the past and refusing to re-invent ourselves for the future.

I recently visited the web sites of national amateur radio organizations in several countries. On many of these web sites – probably most – I found news stories or comments about the decline of amateur radio licenses, the actual or expected loss of spectrum (especially due to spectrum auctions), and the basic notion that amateur radio is obsolete. The popular media (See "Aging Hams" in the St. Paul PioneerPlanet newspaper) has noted this malaise in the Amateur service.

Invariably there are references to the Internet and cellular telephony as examples of why amateur radio is irrelevant. Historically, worldwide communications was a rarity and amateur radio operators were amongst the privileged few to engage routinely in international conversations, a truly unique experience. Today, through advances in telephone systems and in particular, the Internet, cross border communication is common. This web site, for example, is now read in 107 countries! When war breaks out in southern Europe, we turn to the Internet for news and listen to online radio stations, instead of tuning in shortwave broadcasters.

Amateur Radio operators were traditionally amongst the elite few to have portable communications. Today, cellular (and in the U.S. "PCS") phones are commonplace. Some observers predict there will be up to 100 million cellular subscribers in the United States in the year 2000. Global satellite networks are replacing the need for long distance HF communications from remote or portable locations. Enormous advances in communications technology are coming from corporate R&D and academic research, and are eclipsing garage shop tinkerers in the Amateur Radio service. 

With these changes has come a loss of uniqueness and purpose. Radio communication is now a commodity. Ham radio licensees are said to be decreasing in number; fewer persons are said to be attending exam sessions and some say that attendance at ham radio convention "hamfests" is down. Ham radio related businesses are reportedly failing; and membership in national organizations is down (the ARRL reported a loss of 14,000 members since mid 1997 [see footnote 1]) and antenna restrictions have made HF operation off limits to perhaps half of the U.S. population. The "market" is telling us that we are not providing the product or service that the public desires. This is troubling as governments throughout the world are mining revenue from radio spectrum auctions (see footnote [2]) and are eyeing Amateur allocations. As I write this, the FCC has completed the auction of licenses for commercial systems in the shared 904-928 MHz band, where commercial operators have the right to request the discontinuance of Amateur operations.

These observations lead many to conclude that Amateur radio is obsolete – but it does not have to be this way. We blame the Internet or cellular phones but we have only ourselves to blame – we are the ones who cling to the past and refuse to move forward, becoming obsolete within a new world. It is entirely within our capabilities to be relevant for the 21^st century, particularly with our ability to combine communications, computing and networking – the hot technologies of today. Amateur Radio should be the high tech hobby and service of the 21^st century.

Our Uniqueness Has Disappeared
Our uniqueness in international and portable communications has changed significantly – and judging from widespread comments is no longer considered unique to the Amateur Radio experience. Our ability to pioneer radio technology is eclipsed by the highly visible work of commercial developments. Telegraphy has long defined Amateur Radio. Yet the demand for telegraph operators in the real world is now a limit that approaches zero; hence our telegraphic proficiency is a uniqueness that adds little value to the public we serve (and serving the public interest is the only reason we exist). Traditionally, Amateur Radio has focused on HF operation (5 out of 6 licenses have their incentives focused on HF), yet antenna restrictions make HF operation unattractive to perhaps half of U.S. citizens. "Traffic handling" or the relaying of messages, point to point, by radio over long distances, was once a unique service. Today, message handling is a commodity – its called "email". These historical attributes defined Amateur radio - but today, they no longer add significant and unique value to the public we serve.

We Do Not Improve Productivity or Efficiency
Formal "NTS" traffic handling has its place (and it’s a lot of fun!) but is based on a century of tradition, little changed since World War II, 55 years ago. I recently took part in a large ARES communications exercise where we exchanged large quantities of formal written traffic using mostly voice circuits. As I hand wrote our messages onto ARRL "radiogram" forms I thought of numerous improvements to improve our productivity – sure we could handle 40 messages at our station – but what about 400 or 4,000? 

We have the ability to apply modern solutions to today’s problems and to handle vastly larger quantities of messages more efficiently. We need to be constantly improving our skills, our technology and our processes. Instead, we apply old solutions to today’s problems. When we do not deliver the proficiency that is demanded by the public, we are obsolete. Our ARES exercise demonstrated to observing public officials that we could reliably transfer a small number of messages using an old art form rather than a demonstration of our potential ability to handle the quantity of traffic demanded in an actual disaster.

New Commercial Technology Obsoletes Traditional Amateur Radio
In emergency communications, Amateur Radio serves admirably. Three organizations I recently visited (search and rescue, Red Cross and the National Weather Service) very, very much wanted more, not less, support from Amateur Radio volunteers. On the other hand, over the past two years, some of the public service events in which I participated as an amateur radio volunteer have come to rely on digital SMR handheld radios and cellular phones because the organizers believed these solutions served them better. This year, Iridium North America is sponsoring the 1999 Iditarod Sled Dog Race, a 1,049 mile (1,600 kilometer) race long supported by Amateur Radio in Alaska. Iridium is donating 53 satellite-based mobile phones and 38 satellite-based pagers. The Iridium press release quotes the director of the race, saying "We have volunteers scattered the entire length of the … Trail. Traditional communications systems sometimes aren’t able to meet our needs…." (see footnote [3])

The era where we have been is over. The attributes that made us unique are no longer relevant. We fail to widely adopt new technologies and new operating procedures in our service. If we are merely a hobby, then we can do anything we want and this discussion is moot. But if we are actually a government regulated service, chartered to serve the public, requiring access to public radio spectrum, and dependent upon an interest from the general public for members, then we must consider the feedback that the "market" is giving us and use that feedback to re-invent our Service.

Communications is now a commodity. Our best known attributes are no longer unique. We can stick to our traditions – and go "out of business" – or we can accept that the world has changed and that to survive, we must continually re-invent ourselves. We can counter the commoditization of radio communications by innovating and offering unique and creative capabilities that meet today’s challenges.

We Must Redefine Ourselves
Amateur Radio needs to bring itself in line with the contemporary world. We must not define Amateur Radio of the 21^st century in terms of what used to make us unique. Instead, we need to re-invigorate our service with innovation in technology and operations – and make ourselves relevant in a world awash in communications. There are many innovative communications technologies – many invented by hams – but their use is not widely adopted within the amateur service. We stubbornly refuse to acknowledge that today there are better ways to accomplish traditional tasks.

Instead of settling for the status quo, stretch yourself! 

• Be creative in applying innovative solutions to today’s problems. Set yourself high goals and strive to meet them. Instead of settling for 40 messages during your next ARES drill, set a goal of 1,000 – and see what creative solutions your team develops to meet the challenge.
• Look for ways to improve productivity, efficiency and reliability. Don’t settle for the status quo – constantly look for and implement ways to improve your procedures.
• Introduce new technology. Experiment with how image communications, or wireless data or even a new invention – can improve your services and skills.
• When was the last time you tried a new operating mode or technology? When was the last time you varied your procedures? What steps have you taken to improve the reliability of your public service communications team?
• Amateur experimentation is alive and well, contrary to widespread rumors. There are many research projects underway right now. I am aware of projects in areas like high speed digital communications including data networks, digital voice and digital television, high-speed computer generated CW for meteor scatter, satellite communications, and extraordinary weak signal work being done by hams in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. We forget that it is only within the past few years that Amateur Radio enthusiasts invented AX.25, CLOVER, PSK31, "packet cluster" applications, the Automatic Packet Reporting System and "micro-satellites" – each of which has migrated to commercial applications. 

• Our uniqueness has been reduced to a commodity available to everyone. 
• If we do not focus our service on attributes that meaningfully distinguish us from the rest of the crowd, then we may not remain viable. We must dispense with dated traditions and regulations (see footnote[4]) and innovate with new procedures and techniques. If we do not, then we are failing to serve the public and the public will demand our spectrum allocations for other uses. Rather than cling to old traditions, we must "obsolete" ourselves and recognize that our little world cannot remain unchanged in the 21^st century. Or, we can let the rest of the world make us obsolete (our traditions will no longer matter if Amateur Radio no longer exists). We must embrace dynamic change, not retreat and hide behind our pride of past accomplishments. 

• Each of us can contribute by trying something new and adopting change and innovations in our everyday Amateur operations. National Amateur Radio organizations must embrace change and adopt forward-looking policies and visions for the 21^st century. National leadership must be truly committed and supportive of re-aligning Amateur Radio to the realities of the 21^st century. 

It is up to you to accept and embrace change. You can take a small step towards keeping Amateur Radio relevant by embracing a new communications technology, inventing a new application for existing technology, or enhancing your operating procedures. Move yourself from the trailing edge to the leading edge - join TAPR, AMSAT, AMRAD, or the SETI League. Re-invent yourself. And help re-invent Amateur Radio for the 21^st century. Make Amateur Radio a source of creativity, innovation and most of all – make Amateur Radio unique!

[1] In early 1999, the ARRL confirmed a loss of 14,000 members. FCC records indicate a decline of 1,090 Amateurs during 1998. It was suggested that about half of the ARRL membership loss was due to newly licensed Amateurs not renewing their membership - the other half was left unexplained. A reasonable hypothesis is that the other half was due to deaths – literally, a case of amateur radio dying. According to the February 1997 QST summary of a 1996 ARRL survey of U.S. Amateur Radio operators, 29% were over the age of 65. From the report it was not clear if this represented 29% of all Amateurs or 29% of ARRL members. Regardless, this figure portends a significant decline in the number of Amateur Radio licensees simply due to deaths over the next 5 to 10 years. U.S. Amateur licenses must be renewed every ten years and there is no requirement that the FCC be notified of the death of an amateur. An amateur who dies will have, on average, 5 years remaining on his or her license before the license is removed from the FCC database. Consequently, the impact of an upsurge in deaths amongst the Amateur community will first be noticed in ARRL memberships, which are typically renewed annually. It maybe several years before the overall impact of the "dying off" of the Amateur fraternity shows up in the FCC count of Amateur Radio operators. If we assume (and this may be a flawed assumption) that 29% of all Amateurs were over the age of 65 in 1996, it is within the realm of possibility that the U.S. Amateur population will decrease significantly over the next 5 to 10 years, particularly since we have not been attracting new entrants to Amateur Radio to replace the losses. 

[2] Dozens and dozens of countries are using spectrum auctions to allocate radio spectrum. Here in the U.S., the ARRL has succeeded in getting the Amateur Radio Spectrum Protection Act re-introduced to the U.S. Congress. If it passes, it would require the government to allocate substantially similar spectrum for the Amateur Radio Service when existing Amateur spectrum is re-assigned to other uses. This will help us retain access to spectrum – however, even with a lock on spectrum Amateur Radio may be embarking on a period of significant declines in the number of license holders for reasons explained in footnote [1]. Simultaneously, we are suffering from a lack of a defining character that makes Amateur Radio unique from the rest of the things in our world that compete for people’s interests.

[3] Iridium press release, March 3, 1999.

[4] Surprisingly, existing Part 97 regulations literally prohibit innovation in the Amateur service. You can experiment with spread spectrum, but routine Amateur spread spectrum communications are effectively impossible under burdensome regulations that require you to keep detailed copies of your spread spectrum communications. Even the use of popular PKZIP data compression is off limits – you can use PKZIP but you must maintain a copy of the original data, forever!