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The Amateur Radio Service, with a long tradition of HF radio operation, just became a VHF/UHF-centric radio service. The facts:

• Technician class licensees (VHF/UHF centric) now exceed the combined total of General, Advanced and Extra class licensees (HF-centric).
• The good news is that number of Technician class licensees is growing at 3.6% per year! The bad news is that the number of Novice, General and Advanced class licenses is dropping (there is a small increase in Extra class licensees); 
• In just a few years, as few as 1/3^rd of all U.S. Amateurs may be licensed to operate at HF.
• This change is unstoppable and is due mostly to events outside our control.
• Recognizing this change is the key to putting Amateur Radio back on a growth curve.

The Data

Chart 1 shows that the combined total of General, Advanced and Extra class licensees (pink line) is less than all Technicians (blue line). (This chart does not show Novices, who have decreased significantly.) (Source of the data is http://ah0a.net)

The actual drop in HF operating will accelerate faster than shown in Chart 1 because large portions of those operating HF are nearing the end of their life span. To understand this requires looking at a few statistics and graphs - it's not hard but you need to pay attention to see the pattern.

The February 1997 issue of QST published the results of a poll of its members [see note 1]. Chart 2, quoted from that article shows that 44% had 21 or more years of experience as a ham radio operator, while 33% had less than 5 years. The few left over fell in between. Since essentially all new ham operators are Technician class licensees, the 33% who had less than 5 years experience are mostly Technician class licensees, and probably no-code at that (29% of all hams are no-code). Therefore, the 44% who have 21 or more years of experience are the core HF-capable population of Amateur Radio operators. 

A reasonable hypothesis is that experienced Amateurs are the majority of those operating at HF; and most newcomers are operating VHF/UHF. This thesis is consistent with the observation that virtually all-new licensees are Technician class licensees, while the number of Novice, General and Advanced class licenses are dropping rapidly.

Next, look at the age distribution of the Amateur population, shown in Chart 3. As of 1996, 29% of ARRL members are over the age of 65. A reasonable hypothesis is these elder operators are the experienced radio ops.. Over the next few years, deaths will further reduce the pool of HF-capable Amateurs; therefore, the decline in HF operation is poised to accelerate.

What It Means

The U.S. Amateur Radio Service just made a switch from being HF-centric (for nearly 100 years) to being VHF/UHF-centric. This change will accelerate as many HF-capable Amateur Radio operators reach the end of their life span.

HF operation will continue to be important to Amateur Radio - but is no longer the defining characteristic of ham radio nor the lure for attracting new members.

With the number of HF operators declining, the U.S. "incentive license" structure with HF-only incentives is broken. It is for this reason that license-restructuring proposals were made. The ARRL's restructuring proposal, unfortunately, does not acknowledge this shift and still maintains 4 licenses with all incentives at HF. License restructuring is not a panacea that will suddenly increase interest in Amateur Radio. Assuming the FCC issues a 5-wpm General class license, there will be some initial pent up demand for the new license. But longer term, this change, or even eliminating the telegraphic proficiency requirement may not have a huge impact on HF operation. New hams are not operating HF because of other factors.

HF operation is no longer the big draw that it once was. For many hams, practical HF antennas are off limits due to antenna restrictions affecting perhaps half or more of all U.S. residents. (These limits will, over time, affect even more as nearly all new home developments prohibit antennas.) Noisy home telephone wiring-based computer networks that modulate signals across the 2 to 30 Mhz spectrum will make HF operation difficult for even more residents.

Changing technology has lessened the enthusiasm for the magic of HF radio. Where once upon a time, ham radio operators were the only people to routinely engage in international communication, today anyone with a home PC can easily communicate internationally. The "sex appeal" of HF radio operation, traditionally conducted from one home installation to another home installation, has diminished. 

Other factors include changing lifestyles. Today's homes have two wage earners, working to afford the house payments, take care of kids and do shopping in a few minutes in the evening. Life is full everything but leisure time - so hobbies have gone out the window. Sitting at a radio for hours at a time just does not happen anymore.

The reality of the marketplace is that Amateur Radio just became a VHF/UHF centric radio service. There is little we can - or should - do to halt this progression. This is the natural progression of technology changes, our growing population, increasing home prices, small lots, antenna restrictions, a rising noise level at HF, and changes in lifestyles. Like it or not, this is the real world, and we cannot change these real world attributes. 

Why Growth Is Needed

In recent years, our numbers have gone up a little or down little, but generally stay about the same. Since January 1997, in the U.S., our numbers have gone down a bit. Since 1995, the number of Amateurs in the U.K. has decreased by a few percent each year. A dwindling supply of Amateur Radio operators is not good for the Amateur service - we could reach a point where the public would not notice if we disappeared tomorrow. In effect, we would no longer serve the public. While we think of ourselves as "just a hobby", we really do have public interest obligations to meet, or risk losing access to spectrum as it is re-allocated to higher value uses.

Is growth of the Amateur Radio Service necessary? Some argue that we do not need growth. Let's think about that. The Amateur Radio Service exists (in the U.S.) solely to serve a public interest. Our ability to serve the public interest is related to how many Amateur Radio operators are available. More amateur radio operators means more experimenting, more inventions, more self-training in the radio art, and more amateur radio operators assisting their communities in providing public service. Fewer amateur radio operators mean less value to the public. If you disagree, then consider hypothetically that our numbers fall to say, 1,000 - clearly, our value will have decreased to almost nothing and the general public would never notice if we disappeared. The more of us there are, the more value we offer to the public. Dwindling numbers harm our ability to serve our public interest obligations and will result in the loss of access to radio spectrum.

Our Attitude Problem

The most challenging problem is our attitude towards newcomers and our focus on the HF experience as the defining characteristic of Amateur Radio. If you do not operate HF, or if you are not proficient with a telegraph, then you are not a real ham radio operator. This is our most challenging problem - our attitude towards change. If we can overcome this hurdle, promoting Amateur Radio is the easy part. (ARRL President, Rod Stafford, W6ROD, wrote of similar issues in this letter - I encourage you to read it.) I do not have good ideas on how to change people's attitudes. I wish I did because I believe our attitude is the Achilles Heel of the Amateur Radio Service. Changing our attitude towards change and newcomers is a key part of growing ham radio again.

If you have ideas on this attitude issue, please post them on the Discussion Forum.

Promoting Amateur Radio

Amateur radio has always been promoted through word of mouth, and gained members from former military staff, and those working in engineering. Unfortunately, these sources no longer produce enough interested people to grow our hobby. One person wrote to me saying he has 30 RF engineers working for him and none had heard of ham radio. That's the world we live in - a world of other activities and interests for people's time. We can no longer subsist on quiet friendships to recruit new ham radio operators. We must now market Amateur Radio. 

The good news is that the Technician class license is attracting many prospective ham radio operators. Without marketing, the Technician class is growing by 3.6% per year! The bad news is that the HF part is dying (due in large part to external factors that we cannot change), resulting in stagnant or dropping numbers, overall. To make up for the losses and to resume growing, we must leverage the Technician class license and grow that category at 5% to 10% per year. Displaying telegraph paddles, multi-thousand dollar HF radio stations and 70-foot (22-meter) tall towers is creating zero new hams - we've been proving this each year for several years. Think about it!

The solution is to market and promote the Technician class: Like it or not, we are no longer a HF-centric radio service. Getting newcomers "in the door" to ham radio must be our goal right now (where possible, we should encourage newcomers to migrate to the other opportunities that ham radio offers).

We must change our existing license structure to reflect that HF operation is no longer the defining characteristic of Amateur Radio. Unfortunately, none of the license restructuring proposals addressed this issue. So don't look for resolution in a FCC Report and Order. This is too bad because without a properly designed incentive license structure, questions that some have about an alleged lowering of standards remain open. (Contrary to widespread myth, there are a lot of Technician class licensees who are doing technical advancement and development in the Amateur service.)

The Internet is not our enemy, but is our friend. We must embrace the Internet in both a technical and a marketing perspective. 

From a technical perspective, we must develop ways of integrating our communications into the Internet, whether for voice or data applications, for experiments or public service. For emergency communications drills, we should demonstrate how we can wirelessly transfer message traffic from a disaster scene to a remote "safe" location where that traffic can interface to the Internet. Some hams are already using the Internet for packet email interfaces and voice repeater linking functions.

In a related vein, rather than complain that computers and software are attracting youth that might have entered ham radio, we need to accept that software now defines radio user interfaces, networking protocols, modulation and demodulation of radio signals. Computers are not the enemy, but are the future of Amateur radio. We must leverage the use of computers and software technology in Amateur Radio.

We need to identify attributes that "sell" Amateur Radio. Everyone has heard the phrase, "Don't sell the steak, sell the sizzle." What this means is that its better to sell the sound of a mouth-watering steak, sizzling on a grill than selling a slab of cold red meat. With Amateur Radio there are many "sizzlers" for us to sell. These include emergency communications, space communications, technical experimentation, adventure and yes, even that dreaded topic of personal communications. Promoting tall towers, kilowatt amplifiers and telegraphic communications is a non-starter for recruiting new enthusiasts. We've spent several years proving beyond even a shadow of doubt that this approach yields zero new ham radio operators.

We must use the Internet itself to market Amateur Radio. Free banner exchange ads are a simple method of attracting prospective contacts to Amateur Radio web sites. There are thousands of Amateur Radio web sites - and each could be using banner ads to attract newcomers. (I'll write a future story on how to do this for your web site.)

The ARRL must leverage the Internet to promote Amateur Radio; they must drastically improve their web site to increase its attractiveness and usefulness to new Amateur Radio operators. They should use free banner exchange advertising as a way of driving prospects to their web site - depending on the banner ad, these ads might link to a quick online introduction that sells the adventure, excitement, challenge and opportunity of ham radio for the 21^st century. (I'll even offer to help the ARRL with this.)

Conclusion

Four years ago when I began this web site, I wanted to promote ham radio. I've probably invested 2,000 hours developing and editing this web site with frequent updates. From the very beginning I've wanted to know what we could do to revitalize Amateur Radio. A high-tech wireless communication hobby, together with computers, technical experimentation and adventure, ought to be hit as we enter the 21^st century. Instead our numbers have dwindled. 

The problem has been blamed on nearly everything except us - we've blamed low sunspots, the introduction of cellular phones and the Internet, computers taking youth away from ham radio, and we've alleged a vague "lowering of standards". Finally, it seems pretty apparent that we are the ones that need to change. I'll say this over and over again: Like it or not, we just became a VHF/UHF-centric radio service for reasons that are outside our control. There is no stopping this - this is the natural progression for our service as housing costs, small lots, antenna restrictions, lifestyle changes, and technology flood the world with new communications options. HF operation will continue, but is no longer the center point of the Amateur experience. No question that this is hard to accept, but this is the way of Amateur Radio in the U.S. in 1999. Either that or we die off and fade away.

Once we recognize and accept this, we can promote and grow Amateur Radio into the 21^st century.